The Richmond Condo Report: 2025 Year-End Review & The 2026 Forecast

Executive Summary

For those looking for the "bottom line" first, here is the executive snapshot of the Richmond condo market as we head into 2026:

• Market Status: We are in a confirmed Buyer’s Market. The Sales-to-Active Ratio has compressed to 11.0% as of November 2025.

• The Big Shift: Active resale inventory has nearly doubled in 24 months, rising from 472 listings in January 2024 to 938 listings today.

• Price Trend: Prices have softened from the May 2024 peak ($762,600) to $687,300 today.

• The "Hidden" Factor: Beyond the MLS data, a significant volume of "Shadow Inventory" (unsold developer units) is looming over the Lower Mainland, creating a ceiling on future price appreciation.

• Economic Driver: The Bank of Canada held the interest rate at 2.25% on December 10, signaling an end to the "emergency cut" era and the beginning of a stability phase.

• 2026 Outlook: This will be the "Year of Absorption." We forecast flat pricing and high inventory, creating the best buying conditions seen in Richmond since 2019.

Part 1: The Rearview Mirror (2024-2025 Analysis)

To understand where we are going in 2026, we must first dissect the anatomy of the market shift we just witnessed. The data from the last 24 months tells a story of two completely different markets operating within a short timeframe.

The Optimism of Early 2024

The year 2024 began with a sense of constrained energy. In January 2024, Richmond had only 472 active condo listings. The Sales-to-Active ratio was hovering near 20%, which is the technical threshold for a Seller’s Market.

Buyers were competing for limited stock, and this competition drove prices upward. By May 2024, we hit the cycle's peak:

• Peak Price: $762,600 (Home Price Index)

• Peak Velocity: 12 Days on Market (April 2024)

At that moment, the narrative was one of scarcity. If you were a seller in Spring 2024, you likely sold quickly and possibly with multiple offers.

The Pivot: Late 2024 to 2025

As we moved into late 2024, the gears grounded to a halt. The aggression of the Bank of Canada’s earlier rate hikes finally worked its way through the system. Mortgage renewals hit homeowners, investors calculated negative cash flows, and listings began to pile up.

By the time we reached January 2025, inventory had jumped to 661 units. The market was signaling a change, but prices were "sticky"—sellers were still hoping for 2024 prices, while buyers were pulling back.

The Reality of Late 2025

This brings us to today. The data from November 2025 paints a stark picture of the transition:

• Inventory Explosion: We now have 938 active listings. This is a 98% increase from the start of 2024.

• The Velocity Slowdown: It now takes an average of 38 days to sell a condo, more than triple the time it took just 18 months ago.

• The Price Adjustment: The HPI has corrected to $687,300. While this is a drop from the peak, it is crucial to note that this is not a crash; it is a rational compression of value in the face of overwhelming supply.

The market has effectively moved from a "Liquidity Crisis" (not enough homes) to an "Absorption Crisis" (too many homes, not enough qualified buyers).

Part 2: The "Shadow Inventory" Threat

If you only look at the MLS data (the 938 listings mentioned above), you are only seeing half the picture. As a real estate advisor, it is my duty to look beyond the public charts and analyze the Standing Inventory.

What is Standing Inventory?

Standing Inventory refers to new construction condos that have been completed by the developer but remain unsold. Because these units are owned by the developer, they are often not listed on the MLS to avoid "flooding" the data. They sit silently on the balance sheets of development firms, waiting to be released.

The Richmond & Burnaby Concentration

Current industry reports and data from urban analytics firms indicate that there are approximately 3,000 unsold concrete condominium units sitting vacant across the Lower Mainland.

Richmond and Burnaby are the two municipalities with the highest concentration of this supply. Why? Because these areas saw the most aggressive "pre-sale" launches between 2020 and 2022. Projects that broke ground three years ago are completing now, in a market that has fundamentally changed.

The "Ceiling" Effect

Why does this matter to you as a resale buyer or seller? This shadow inventory acts as a "price ceiling."

• Scenario: If resale prices start to creep up in 2026, developers will release batches of their standing inventory.

• Result: This influx of brand-new product (often with incentives like "GST included" or "Decorator Allowances") will compete directly with resale listings, preventing resale prices from running away.

For 2026, this means we cannot rely on scarcity to drive prices up. There is simply too much product—both visible and invisible—available.

Part 3: The Economic Landscape (Bank of Canada Update)

Real estate does not exist in a vacuum. It is downstream from the broader economy. On December 10, 2025, the Bank of Canada provided the clarity we have been waiting for.

The Decision: HOLD at 2.25%

The Bank of Canada announced it would hold the overnight rate at 2.25%. This decision is significant for three reasons:

1. The End of "Emergency" Cuts: The aggressive cutting cycle of 2025 is over. The Bank believes the economy has stabilized enough (with GDP growth at 2.6%) that it no longer needs to "rescue" the market with rock-bottom rates.

2. Inflation is Tamed (For Now): With inflation hovering near 2.2%, the Bank is comfortable. However, they are wary of reigniting it.

3. The "Neutral" Range: A rate of 2.25% is considered "neutral." It neither stimulates nor restricts the economy.

What This Means for Mortgages

• Variable Rate Holders: You can breathe a sigh of relief. Your payments have stabilized.

• Fixed Rate Buyers: Bond yields (which drive fixed mortgage rates) have likely bottomed out. If you are waiting for 5-year fixed rates to drop to 1.99% again, you will be waiting a long time. The "new normal" for fixed rates will likely settle in the mid-3% to low-4% range.

• The Stress Test: The qualifying rate remains a hurdle. Even with lower rates, buyers must qualify at a higher benchmark, which continues to cap purchasing power for entry-level buyers.

Part 4: The 2026 Forecast

Based on the intersection of high inventory (938 resale + ~3,000 shadow) and stable interest rates (2.25%), here is my official forecast for the Richmond Condo Market in 2026.

The Theme: "The Year of Absorption"

2026 will not be a year of price growth. It will be a year of volume absorption. The market must "chew through" the excess supply before any upward price pressure can resume.

Quarter-by-Quarter Prediction:

• Q1 2026 (The Hangover): Inventory will remain high as listings from late 2025 expire and re-list. Prices will be at their softest here. This is the "peak opportunity" window for buyers.

• Q2 2026 (The Stabilization): As spring buyers enter the market, sales volume will pick up. However, because inventory is so deep, prices will likely remain flat. The Sales-to-Active ratio may creep up to 13-14%, but will stay in Buyer's Market territory.

• Q3 & Q4 2026 (The Balance): By late 2026, if absorption continues at a steady pace, we may see the market return to "Balanced" territory (15-20% Sales-to-Active ratio). Only then will we see the potential for modest price appreciation (1-2%).

Part 5: The Strategic Playbook

In a market this distinct, "average" advice leads to average results. Whether you are buying or selling, you need a strategy tailored to an 11% Sales-to-Active ratio.

For Buyers: The "Kid in a Candy Store" Strategy

You currently hold all the cards. But having power and using it effectively are two different things.

1. Target "Stale" Inventory: Look for listings that have been on the market for 60+ days. These sellers are often fatigued. With the average Days on Market at 38, anything over 60 is ripe for negotiation.

2. Leverage the Shadow Market: Don't just look at MLS. Ask me to take you to developer presentation centers. In a market like this, developers often offer "off-book" incentives that aren't advertised, such as strata fee credits for 2 years or paying your Property Transfer Tax.

3. Negotiate Terms, Not Just Price: In a Buyer's Market, you can ask for things that would be laughable in a Seller's Market. Dates, subject removal periods, and inclusions are all on the table. Need 3 months to close? Ask for it.

The Risk: The only risk for buyers in 2026 is "Analysis Paralysis." Waiting for the "absolute bottom" often means missing the best selection. The bottom is a moment in time that is only visible in the rearview mirror.

For Sellers: The "Precision" Strategy

Selling in a market with 938 competitors requires a shift in mindset. You are no longer selling a scarcity; you are selling a commodity.

1. Price is the Only Marketing that Matters: In 2024, you could price at $750k and sell for $760k. In 2026, if the comps support $690k and you list at $710k, you will sit. You will sit for 30, 60, 90 days, and eventually chase the market down to $680k. Rule of Thumb: You must be the most compelling value in your building. If unit 404 is listed for $699k, you need to be $689k or have significantly better renovations.

2. Presentation is Non-Negotiable: When buyers have 20 units to view, they will discard any unit that looks cluttered, dark, or tired. Staging is no longer an "extra"; it is the baseline requirement to get a showing.

3. Patience is Key: The average sale takes 38 days. Do not panic after two weeks of no offers. If the price is right, the buyer will come, but the velocity has slowed.

Part 6: Conclusion

The Richmond condo market is correcting, not crashing.

We are seeing a healthy, albeit painful, return to fundamentals. The speculative froth of the pandemic years has been blown off, leaving us with a market driven by real people, real incomes, and real interest rates.

For 2026, the data is clear: Stability is here.

If you are a buyer, this is your window. The combination of choice (inventory) and stability (rates) is rare. If you are a seller, this is your reality check. Success is possible, but it requires precision, patience, and professional guidance.

Thank you for reading this comprehensive review. Our goal is to empower you with the data you need to make intelligent decisions for your future.

Ciao for now!

Glossary of Terms Used

• Sales-to-Active Ratio: A metric used to measure supply and demand.

  • Under 12%: Buyer's Market (Downward pressure on prices)

  • 12% - 20%: Balanced Market (Stable prices)

  • Over 20%: Seller's Market (Upward pressure on prices)

• HPI (Home Price Index): A measure of real estate prices that tracks the price of a "benchmark" or typical home, smoothing out the distortions that can occur with average prices (e.g., one luxury mansion sale skewing the average).

• Days on Market (DOM): The number of days a property is listed on the MLS before it sells.

• Standing Inventory: Completed, un-sold new construction units held by developers.

• Absorption Rate: The rate at which available homes are sold in a specific real estate market during a given time period.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q: Is the Richmond market crashing? A: No. A "crash" typically involves a 20%+ drop in prices rapidly, often driven by a distressed economy. We are seeing a "correction" or "softening." Prices have adjusted ~10% from the peak, which is a rational response to higher interest rates.

Q: Should I buy a pre-sale or a resale condo in 2026? A: This depends on your timeline. Resale offers better value per square foot right now (approx. $831/sqft for resale vs. $1,100+/sqft for pre-sale). However, pre-sales offer deposit structures that allow you to leverage your capital over time. In 2026, resale is likely the "safer" financial bet, but standing inventory from developers might offer aggressive incentives that narrow the gap.

Q: Will interest rates drop further in 2026? A: The Bank of Canada has signaled a pause. While minor adjustments (0.25%) are possible, the days of rapid drops are likely over. It is safer to budget based on the current rates than to gamble on future cuts.

Q: Why are there so many listings in Richmond right now? A: It is a combination of three factors:

1. Investors exiting: Many investors who bought 3-5 years ago are facing mortgage renewals at higher rates, making their units cash-flow negative.

2. Completions: New buildings are finishing, and investors who bought pre-sales are trying to sell (assign) them before closing.

3. Natural turnover: People still move for life reasons (marriage, divorce, kids), and these listings are accumulating because buyers are taking longer to decide.

Disclaimer: This article is based on data available as of December 11, 2025. Real estate markets are local and volatile. This content is for informational purposes only reflecting my personal opinion and does not constitute financial or legal advice. Lets chat about your specific situation.