Richmond Townhouse Market: 2025 Review & 2026 Outlook

At a Glance: The Quick Summary

• Current Market Status: Buyer’s Market (Slow sales, high inventory).

• Median Price (Nov 2025): $1,085,000 (Down from early 2024 highs).

• Inventory Level: High (374 active listings).

• 2026 Forecast: Prices are expected to stay flat or dip slightly. It will remain a good time to buy, but a challenging time to sell.

1. Introduction: Is the Market Changing?

For a long time, buying a townhouse in Richmond, BC, was difficult because there were few homes for sale. Prices went up quickly, and buyers had to act fast.

Today, the market has flipped. The data from 2024 and 2025 shows a major shift: we now have plenty of supply (homes for sale) but less demand (buyers).

This report explains why this is happening and what to expect in 2026. Whether you are selling your home or looking to buy, understanding these facts is better than listening to rumors.

Note on "Hidden" Listings: This report uses official sales data (MLS). It does not include "Shadow Listings"—homes that were taken off the market because they didn't sell. These hidden homes add to the supply but aren't always visible in standard charts.

2. 2025 Market Review: What the Numbers Say

To predict the future, we have to look at the recent past. The trend is clear: more homes are sitting on the market, and fewer are selling.

Inventory: More Homes to Choose From

In January 2024, there were only 159 townhouses for sale in Richmond. Buyers had very few choices. By November 2025, that number jumped to 374 townhouses.

• The Change: Inventory increased by 135%.

• For Buyers: Two years ago, you had limited options. Today, you can tour 10 or 12 different homes before making a decision.

The Sales Ratio: Is it a Buyer's or Seller's Market?

Real estate experts use the "Sales-to-Active Ratio" to measure market speed.

• Seller's Market (Hot): Over 20%

• Buyer's Market (Slow): Under 12%

The Drop:

• Early 2024: The market was hot (36.7%).

• Mid-2024: It cooled down.

• Late 2025: It dropped to 8.8%.

What this means: In late 2025, fewer than 9 out of every 100 listings sold each month. This gives buyers huge negotiating power.

Prices: A Slow Slide Down

When sales slow down, prices usually follow.

• Benchmark Price: Peaked at roughly $1.17 million in May 2024. By November 2025, it dropped to $1.07 million.

• Price Per Square Foot: In early 2024, buyers paid over $800/sqft. In November 2025, it dropped to $708/sqft.

Prices have come down, but they haven't crashed. Sellers are holding firm, which is part of why sales are so slow.

Speed of Sale: Patience Required

In March 2024, a townhouse sold in about 8 days. In November 2025, it took a median of 39 days. Homes are sitting on the market five times longer than they did two years ago.

3. The Economic Outlook for 2026

Real estate depends heavily on the Bank of Canada and interest rates.

Current Interest Rate (Dec 2025): 2.25% The Bank of Canada believes this is a "neutral" rate—low enough to keep the economy moving, but high enough to stop inflation.

What to Expect:

• Stable Rates: Experts do not expect rates to drop to near-zero again. 2.25% is likely the "new normal" for 2026.

• Mortgage Stress Test: Even with a 2.25% rate, buyers must prove they can afford payments at much higher rates (around 4.25% to 5%). This limit on borrowing power keeps home prices from skyrocketing.

4. 2026 Forecast: What Comes Next?

Based on the high inventory and steady interest rates, here is our conservative forecast for the Richmond Townhouse market in 2026.

Prediction 1: Prices Will Stay Flat or Dip

We do not expect a crash. However, because there are so many sellers and few buyers, prices might drift down another 3% to 5% in the first half of the year.

Prediction 2: "Flight to Quality"

With nearly 400 homes for sale, buyers can be picky.

• Renovated homes in good locations will sell.

• Older homes needing work will sit on the market for a long time.

• The price gap between "great" homes and "average" homes will widen.

Prediction 3: It Remains a Buyer's Market

If prices start to rise, many "Shadow Listings" (homes that failed to sell in 2025) will return to the market. This extra supply will keep a lid on prices, ensuring buyers continue to have the upper hand in 2026.

5. Strategic Advice

Advice for Sellers in 2026

• Don't "Test" the Market: You cannot list at a high price and hope for the best. With an 8.8% sales ratio, you are competing against 10 neighbors for 1 buyer.

• Price Sharply: Look at the most recent sales and price your home slightly below them to stand out.

Advice for Buyers in 2026

• Take Your Time: You don't need to rush or make offers without inspections.

• Look for "Stale" Listings: Search for homes that have been on the market for 40+ days. These sellers are likely tired and more willing to negotiate on price.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Is 2026 a good time to buy a townhouse in Richmond? Yes. 2026 is projected to be a strong Buyer’s Market. With high inventory and stable interest rates, buyers have more choices and negotiating power than they have had in years.

Will townhouse prices in Richmond drop in 2026? We forecast a mild price softening (3-5%) or flat prices. A major crash is unlikely, but rapid price growth is also not expected due to the high number of homes for sale.

What is the average price of a townhouse in Richmond right now? As of November 2025, the median sales price for a townhouse in Richmond is approximately $1,085,000.

How does the "Shadow Inventory" affect the market? "Shadow Inventory" refers to homes that were listed but didn't sell and were taken off the market. If buyer demand increases, these homes will likely be re-listed, adding more supply and preventing prices from rising quickly.

Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and reflects my opinion only. It is not financial or legal advice. Market statistics are based on MLS data but are subject to change.